设计洪水估计值的抽样误差分析与应用  

Analysis and Application of Sampling Error of Estimated Value of Design Flood

作　　者：徐俊[1] 秦国民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水电顾问集团西北勘测设计研究院,西安710065

出　　处：《西北水电》2012年第4期6-9,13,共5页Northwest Hydropower

摘　　要：在设计洪水估计值的抽样误差分析中,采用B值诺模图方法估计均方误差简单易用。文章对在水电工程中经常采用的P-Ⅲ型经验适线法估计的设计洪水成果如何借助优化适线法参数来估算设计洪水值的抽样误差进行了分析说明。不同的优化适线法会得到不同的诺模系数B,估算设计洪水估计值的抽样误差时,选用某一准则的优化适线要使用相应的诺模系数B值。并分别对实测洪水的连序系列及含历史洪水的不连序系列资料进行了应用分析。In analysis on the sampling error of estimated value of design flood,the method of application of the B-value nomography for estimate of mean-square error is one simple and easy way.In this paper,how to utilize parameters of the optimum curve-fitting method to estimate the sampling error of the design flood value is analyzed and introduced aiming at the result of the design flood estimated by P-Ⅲ empirical curve-fitting method often applied in hydropower projects.Different nomo-factor Bs shall be available with application of different optimum curve-fitting methods.When the sampling error of the estimated value of the design flood is estimated,a corresponding nomo-factor B shall be applied while one optimum fitting curve satisfying one code is utilized.Furthermore,data on the continuous series of the measured flood and data on the discontinuous series with historical flood are analyzed respectively for application.

关 键 词：抽样误差 诺模系数 优化适线法 统计试验 折算年数 

分 类 号：TV122.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源]