面向战略性新兴产业的技术选择模型及应用  

Technology Selection Model for Strategic Emerging Industry and Its Application based on Fuzzy Delphi Method and Rough Set

作　　者：李欣[1] 黄鲁成[1] 吴菲菲[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2012年第5期634-641,共8页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划资助项目(2010GXS3K083);国家社科基金重大项目(11&ZD140);北京市科技计划资助项目(Z101108001810019;Z11110805550000);北京市创新人才建设计划资助项目(PHR-IHLB)

摘　　要：战略性新兴产业发展需要新兴技术支撑。针对战略性新兴产业发展中的技术选择问题,提出了基于模糊德尔菲法和粗糙集的面向战略性新兴产业的技术选择模型。该模型利用模糊德尔菲法获取系统的评价指标;然后利用粗糙集对评价指标进行约简并确定约简后的评价指标权重;最后,结合情景分析对技术进行综合评价。以新能源产业发展中的储能技术选择为例,运用该模型对能应用于新能源并网发电的储能技术进行了评价分析。实证分析结果表明,该模型具有较好的科学性和有效性。The development of strategic emerging industry needs the sustentation of emerging technology. For the technology selection problem in strategic emerging industry, an evaluation model based on fuzzy Delphi method and rough set is proposed. This model firstly applies fuzzy Delphi method to obtain the evaluation criteria system. Then the evaluation criteria system is reduced by rough set and the weights of reduced evaluation criteria are derived by rough set discernibility matrix. Finally, the final evaluation of each technology is obtained by integrating scenario analysis. The energy storage technology selection problem in the development of new energy industry is used a case study. The model is applied to evaluate the energy storage technologies for new energy that can be combined with the grids. The results show that the evaluation model has good validity and applicability.

关 键 词：模糊德尔菲法 粗糙集 战略性新兴产业 新能源 储能技术 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济]