基于Matlab和灰色模型GM(1,1)预测海岸线变化  

Prediction on the coastline change based on the grey model GM(1,1) and MATLAB

作　　者：余威[1,2] 吴自银[1,2] 傅斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局第二海洋研究所,浙江杭州310012 [2]国家海洋局海底科学重点实验室,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《海洋通报》2012年第4期404-408,共5页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：海洋公益性行业科研专项(201105001);国家自然科学基金(40506017)

摘　　要：使用灰色模型的"少数据"建模寻求现实规律的良好特性用于海岸线变迁预测,结合MATLAB强大的计算能力,解决了灰色预测模型在矩阵计算方面复杂的问题。利用1975-2005年珠江口内伶仃洋海区6个时期的海图提取局部时序海岸线,设置原点和28条侧线,使用侧线与海岸线的交点,建立灰色模型GM(1,1)模型原始数列,使用MATLAB编制程序计算出海岸线变化的预测点,并使用2005年实际海岸线对预测结果进行验证,结果表明灰色模型GM(1,1)进行海岸线预测是合理可靠的。A good method was put forward to predict the coastline change based on the grey model GM （ 1, 1） for its ability to seek for good solution with “a little data”, combined with the powerful computing matrix with MATLAB easily. In the paper, origins and 28 lateral lines were set up based on coastline data which ,sere extracted from charts of the Lingding Sea in the pearl estuary from 1975 to 2005. Then 28 series of intersection points of coastlines and lateral lines were used make grey model GM （1, 1） . Finally the points of coastline were calculated by MATLAB program, and test methods were adopted to verify the result with the real coastline in 2005. The result showed that the shoreline prediction based on the grey model GM （1, 1） was reasonable and reliable.

关 键 词：灰色模型GM(1 1) 海岸线 珠江口 MATLAB软件 预测 

分 类 号：P737.1[天文地球—海洋地质]