地震活动性预测并划分未来地震发生的潜在区域方法研究  

Research on methodology of seismicity delineating zones of potential large earthquakes

作　　者：荣棉水[1,2] 杨勇[3] 史保平[4] 徐丹丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京市海淀区安宁庄路1号100085 [2]中国地震局地球物理研究所 [3]华融国际信托有限责任公司,北京100045 [4]中国科学院研究生院地球科学学院,北京100049

出　　处：《中国地震》2012年第2期144-153,共10页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：中央公益型研究所基本科研业务专项基金(ZDJ2011-14;ZDJ2010-08);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973项目)(2011CB013601)资助

摘　　要：采用网格地震方法,选取面积百分比(33%),确定圈闭区域的半径,统计后期地震发生在圈闭区域内的概率。在我国4个不同构造环境和地震活动水平的地区,分别统计了后期地震发生在圈闭区域内的概率。结果表明,4个地区后期地震发生在圈闭区域的概率远远大于面积百分比。说明未来地震是高度地聚集在过去地震发生的区域内,采用地震活动性预测并划分未来地震发生的潜在区域的方法是可行的。The cellullar seismology method has been proposed. While using this method, we first select a percentage of map area （33 % ） , and then determine the radius of trap region, and finally estimate the probability of ＂ after＂ earthquake in the trap region. In four regions of different tectonic environments and seismic activity in China, we estimate the probabilities of ＂after＂ earthquake in the trap regions respectively. The results indicate that the probability of ＂ after＂ earthquake in the trap region is greater than the percentage of map area, and that future earthquakes may occur more frequently where there have been earthquakes in the past. Therefore, it is feasible to use seismicity prediction to delineate potential locations of future earthquakes which varies for regions with different tectonic environments.

关 键 词：地震活动性 统计 网格地震方法 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]