资产价格波动、财富效应稳定性与货币政策调控分析  

An Analysis of the Fluctuation of Asset Prices,the Stability of Wealth Effect and the Implementation of Monetary Policy

作　　者：骆祚炎[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院金融学院及国民经济研究中心,广东广州510320

出　　处：《上海金融》2012年第9期42-47,117,共6页Shanghai Finance

基　　金：作者主持的国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于消费视角的居民资产财富效应测度与调控政策研究"(71073030);广东省高等学校高层次人才项目"基于消费视角的广东省居民资产财富效应研究"(编号:Z9991304)的部分研究成果

摘　　要：本文通过一个财富效应的比较分析模型,采取状态空间模型和VAR模型检验中国城镇居民资产财富效应的稳定性。检验得到三点结论。一是从强弱性来看,各资产的财富效应微弱。二是从稳定性来看,住房资产的财富效应相对稳定,证券类金融资产的财富效应最不稳定。三是由于财富效应的微弱性特征,其非对称性特征不明显。造成上述情况的主要原因是,这些资产价值变化的暂时性特征过于突出,而持久性特征不明显,在弱化财富效应的同时引起财富效应不稳定。为维护财富效应的稳定性,货币政策应该适度干预资产价格的波动,并侧重于对房地产价格的调控,加强资产市场的预期管理,加强资本流动管理,降低国际市场波动对国内财富效应的负面影响。Through comparative analysis,the paper applies the state-space model and VAR model to examine the stability of wealth effect on Chinese urban residents.It comes to three conclusions.First,the wealth effect of all kinds of assets is weak.Second,the wealth effect of real estate is comparatively stable,while the wealth effect of financial assets is the most unstable.Third,the asymmetric feature of wealth effect is not evident.The main cause of the above phenomenon is that the change in asset value is transient rather than sustainable,thus leads to the instability of wealth effect.In order to keep the stability of wealth effect,monetary policy should intervene the asset price fluctuation moderately,especially the housing prices.Also,the authority should strengthen the expectation management on asset market and the international capital flow management,so as to reduce the negative effect of international financial markets on the domestic wealth effect.

关 键 词：资产价格 财富效应 稳定性 货币政策 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]