美国进口中国风电产品Armington弹性估计与进口福利分析  

Armington Elasticity Estimation and Import Welfare Analysis of U.S.Imports of Wind Power Products from China

作　　者：廖玫[1] 吴天昊[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《生态经济》2012年第10期116-120,139,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"中国碳交易市场的不确定性与约束条件研究"(09YJA790011)

摘　　要：自2010年以来,美国先后两次对中国风电产品提起调查,认为其对美相关产业造成冲击,中美贸易摩擦焦点已经转移到清洁能源领域。文章以风力发电机组为例,选取2002年到2011年的4组时间序列数据,对美国进口中国风电产品与美国国产品之间的Armington替代弹性进行了估计。通过运用估计得出的Armington弹性检验进口品与国产品的互替和互补关系,我们分析得出当前中国风电产品与美国国产品并不是互替的关系,而是互补的关系,进口中国风电产品反而会给美国带来较大的进口福利;同时从长期来看,随着我国风电产品生产技术不断提高,我国风电产品将会替代美国国产品,中美风电贸易关系将从互补性转向竞争替代。因此我国风电企业必须同政府及行业协会积极应对中美风电贸易摩擦。Since 2010, the United States has initiated investigations on China＇s wind power products twice, claiming that the related industries in the United States have been shocked. The focus of Sino-US trade friction has shifted to the field of clean energy. In this paper, we take the wind turbine as example, selecting the time series data from 2002 to 2011, and estimate the Armington elasticity of substitution between U.S. imports of wind power products from China and U.S. domestic products. Through applying the estimated Armington elasticity to test the substitutionary and complementary relationship between imported goods and domestic products, we conclude that the relationship between China＇s wind power products and U.S. products are complementary instead of being substitutionary and import of Chinese wind power products will bring the United States large imports welfare instead; in the long run, with the fast improvement of China＇s wind power production technology, wind power products from China will replace U.S. products, and the wind power trade relationship between China and the United States will shift from being complementary to competitive substitutionary. Therefore, China＇s wind power enterprises should cooperate with government and industry associations to cope with the Sino-US trade friction of wind power proactively.

关 键 词：风电产品 Armington弹性 进口福利分析 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学] F752