未来中长期全球气候变化趋势:影响及应对  

The Mid-and Long-term Future Trends in Global Climate Change:Their Effects and How to Buck Them

作　　者：程春华[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《和平与发展》2012年第4期63-69,72,共7页Peace and Development

基　　金：教育部重大攻关项目"中国国际战略环境预测与国家应对战略研究"(项目批准号 09JZD0040-1)

摘　　要：未来中长期全球气候变化可能呈现整体变暖、局部降温的趋势。全球变暖与温室效应密不可分,未来气候变化具有时空不平衡、稳定性与突变性并存等特点。气候变化可能对生态环境、水资源安全、农林与粮食等经济安全、人类健康与发展等方面带来复杂影响。应对气候变化将面临经济等不利因素的挑战。气候变化问题已成为大国内外战略的重要组成部分,世界气候政治博弈将日趋激烈。未来发达国家集团长期占领气候政治格局优势地位的趋势很难改变,发展中国家将面临严峻挑战。The mid-and long-term future trends in global climate change suggest that they will move towards getting warmer on the whole,while temperature in some parts of the globe will be going down.Global warming and greenhouse effects are closely related.Changes in future climate will have a number of distinguishing features,such as the imbalance in time and space,coexistence of stability with sudden changes.Climate change is likely to exert a complicated effect on the ecology,water safety,economic security of agricultural and food production,human health and development,etc.In order to tackle climate change,we have to face up to challenges from economy and other negative factors.As the issue of climate change has become an important part of the internal and external strategies of the big powers,political rivalries in global climate change among them are growing in intensity.In the future,the trend in which the developed countries as a group will take up their dominant position in the political setup of climate change for a long time to come,can hardly be reversed.And the developing countries are going to face with serious challenges.

关 键 词：气候变化趋势 气候影响 气候变化应对 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]