2011年汛期预测回顾  

Review of the Summer Climate Prediction in 2011

作　　者：梁潇云[1] 龚振淞[1] 王永光[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2012年第9期1150-1154,共5页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906018);气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2011M65)共同资助

摘　　要：2011年夏季(6—8月),全国降水偏少,气温偏高,高温日数偏多,区域性、阶段性旱涝灾害重,旱涝转换快,登陆热带气旋(中心附近最大风力≥8级)强度弱,灾害损失偏轻。本文对2011年夏季(6—8月)天气气候异常特征进行了成因分析,并对2011年的汛期预测进行了回顾和总结。总的来说,2011年汛期预测总体趋势与实况接近,但是对于长江中下游的降水偏多估计不足。There are less precipitaion, higher temperature and more high-temperature days than normal all over China in summer 2011. Meanwhile, stage and regional drought and flood disasters occur and their transformations are quickly. The loss caused by typhoon is lighter, because the typhoon strength of land- ing China is weaker than normal in 2011. Based on analysis of causes for the weather and climate anomaly characters in summer 2011, the summer climate prediction in 2011 is reviewed. In general, the prediction catched the main characters mentioned above, but the forecast of precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is underestimated.

关 键 词：汛期预测 大气环流 拉尼娜事件 积雪 气候异常 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]