我国“十二·五”时期省级碳强度约束指标的效率分配——基于ZSG环境生产技术的研究  

China's Carbon Intensity Constraint Efficiency Allocation Research During "12·5" Period——Based on ZSG Environmental Production Technology

作　　者：苗壮[1,2] 周鹏[1,2] 李向民[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]南京航空航天大学能源软科学研究中心,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《经济管理》2012年第9期25-36,共12页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究项目“碳强度约束背景下江苏省减排目标分配机制与政策研究”(2012SJD790038);国家自然科学基金青年项目“考虑非期望产出的效率模型及其在能源效率与环境绩效评价研究中的应用”(70903031);国家自然科学基金面上项目“区域碳排放演化机制及减排配额交易绩效模拟研究”(41071348)

摘　　要：我国政府已明确"截止2015年末,我国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放(碳强度)要比2010年下降17%"的减排目标,而目前学术界缺乏将国家制定的碳强度约束指标进行省级分解的系统考量。因此,制定科学的碳强度约束指标分配体系是亟须解决的现实问题。本文提出基于"零和收益"思想的环境生产技术(ZSG环境生产技术)的碳排放分配模型,将"十二·五"时期省级碳强度约束指标进行效率分配。研究结果表明,使用ZSG环境生产技术模型对碳排放进行效率分配后,各省区的投入—产出指标同时处于ZSG前沿面上,实现经济指标、能源指标和环境指标的整体帕累托最优;"十二·五"时期各省区的碳强度约束指标大相径庭,部分省区未来需要下降的幅度超过17%的国家平均标准,面临形势较为严峻的低碳转型之路。In this paper, we will use environmental production technology and the ZSG - DEA method organi- cally, put forward ZSG environmental production technology of CO2 emissions allocation model aiming at overall technical efficiency maximization of all provinces, estimate China provinces＇ CO2 emissions for the year 2011 2015, perform ZSG efficiency allocation carbon intensity for every province during ＂12·5＂ period, compare the- carbon intensity constraints results between the distribution mechanism of national administration and ZSG environ- mental production technology distribution mechanism, and discuss of various provinces＇ low carbon development path of ＂12 ~ 5＂ period. In the model of this paper, combined with Fare et al. （1989）and Zhou and Ang（2008） corresponding research foundation on Environment Production Technology, and Gomes and Lins （2008）on the ZSG - DEA method, in view of the shortcomings of the existing research on variable distribution, we put forward the ZSG Environment Production Technology method, this method is applied in undesirable output-carbon dioxide emissions allocation research, so as to solve the non-radial carbon dioxide emissions efficiency distribution, fill the blank in the fields of DEA method in distribution research. The empirical results of the study show that, first of all, we forecast China ＂12 ~ 5＂ period＇s（ the year from 2011to 2015 ）annual amounts of energy consumption, population, capital stock, gross domestic product（GDP） and carbon dioxide emissions reasonably. Through the ZSG Environment Production Technologies for CO2emissions allo- cation model calculation and the efficiency allocation amounts of all provinces CO2 emissions, although ZSG emis- sions and forecasted emissions of every province is different, some increases and some decreases（ for the year 2015, Shanxi province should reduce 14. 44 million tons CO2 emissions theoretically）, but total CO2 emissions amount re- mains unchanged, all provinces are on the ZSG-DEA efficie

关 键 词：环境生产技术 ZSG—DEA 十二·五 碳强度约束 效率分配 低碳经济 

分 类 号：F123.2[经济管理—世界经济]