A SIMILARITY SCHEME FOR QUANTITATIVE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION OF TYPHOONS  

作　　者：钟元 潘劲松 朱红 陈卫锋 陈世春 梁明珠 

机构地区：[1]Zhejiang Meteorological Research Institute [2]Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory [3]Huzhou Meteorological bureau

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2012年第3期322-331,共10页热带气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Specialized Research Project for Social Welfare from Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2005DIB3J104);Science and Technology Planning Project for Zhejiang Province (2007C23065)

摘　　要：A quantitative scheme is put forward in our work of forecasting the storm rainfall of typhoons for specific sites.Using the initial parameters,weather situations and physical quantities as well as numerical weather prediction products,the scheme constructs multivariate,objective and similarity criteria for environmental factors for the time between the current and forthcoming moment within the domain of forecast.Through defining a non-linear similarity index,this work presents a comprehensive assessment of the similarity between historical samples of typhoons and those being forecast in terms of continuous dynamic states under the multivariate criteria in order to identify similar samples.The historical rainfall records of the similar samples are used to run weighted summarization of the similarity index to determine site-specific and quantitative forecasts of future typhoon rainfall.Samples resembling the typhoon being forecast are selected by defining a non-linear similarity index composed of multiple criteria.Trial tests have demonstrated that this scheme has positive prediction skill.A quantitative scheme is put forward in our work of forecasting the storm rainfall of typhoons for specific sites. Using the initial parameters, weather situations and physical quantities as well as numerical weather prediction products, the scheme constructs multivariate, objective and similarity criteria for environmental factors for the time between the current and forthcoming moment within the domain of forecast. Through defining a non-linear similarity index, this work presents a comprehensive assessment of the similarity between historical samples of typhoons and those being forecast in terms of continuous dynamic states under the multivariate criteria in order to identify similar samples. The historical rainfall records of the similar samples are used to run weighted summarization of the similarity index to determine site-specific and quantitative forecasts of future typhoon rainfall. Samples resembling the typhoon being forecast are selected by defining a non-linear similarity index composed of multiple criteria. Trial tests have demonstrated that this scheme has positive prediction skill.

关 键 词：weather forecast forecasting methods typhoon storm precipitation site-specific and quantitative forecast SIMILARITY 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]