西安市旅游收入与经济增长关系的实证分析  

An Empirical Study on Relation Between Xi'an Tourism Income and Economic Growth

作　　者：任燕[1] 穆秀珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安财经学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《西安财经学院学报》2012年第5期97-102,共6页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：陕西省软科学基金项目"旅游业驱动关中-天水地区经济发展研究"(2011KRM17)

摘　　要：文章通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,对1985—2010年西安市的经济收入和旅游收入进行分析研究。研究发现,长期内西安市经济增长受旅游收入水平滞后和经济增长水平滞后等因素的影响,西安市旅游收入则受其自身收入滞后因素影响较大。此外,文章还引入修正误差项ECM建立VEC模型对西安市经济增长和本地区旅游收入的短期关系进行了实证检验。研究发现,短期内西安市旅游收入对本地区经济增长有单向推动作用,而经济增长对本地区旅游收入的作用则不显著。Based on the VAR model, this paper analyses Xi＇ an economic income and tourism income from 1985 to 2010. The finding shows that in long term Xi＇ an economic growth is affected by both economic growth and tourism income, while Xi＇an tourism income is affected by itself. In addition, this paper uses VEC model on the relationship between Xi＇ an economic growth and regional tourism income in short term. The author shows that in short term there is one-side effect between them, but the effect of tourism in- come from economic growth is not obvious.

关 键 词：旅游经济 VAR模型 西安旅游收入 经济增长 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]