铁路集装箱短期运量预测方法分析  

The Short-term Forecast Method and Research of Railway Container Transport Volume

作　　者：李大为[1] 俞晶菁[1] 吕高腾[1] 袁恺瞳[1] 马健[1] 马玉千[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2012年第5期111-115,共5页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

摘　　要：集装箱运输作为一种先进的现代化运输方式,不仅能加快货物送达的速度,减少运输成本,还具有运送安全、手续简便,便于实现多式联运和"门到门"运输服务的特点,通过分析常用预测模型的原理与方法,论述铁路集装箱运量的预测方法,得出较合理的灰色-广义回归神经网络组合预测的方法。因此,该方法对运量预测研究和分析具有理论意义。ontainer transport as an advanced and modern modes of transport, not only to accelerate the speed of delivery of goods, reducing transportation costs, also has the delivery of safe, simple procedures, easy to realize the characteristics of multimodal transport and ＂door to door ＂transportation. By analyze the principle and mehtod of common predict model, discuss on the prediction ways of railway container transpertation,make a suitable grey-uider prediction method. So traffic prediction and analysis have a strong practical and theoretical significance.

关 键 词：铁路集装箱运输 运量预测 模型 算法 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]