气候变化对沈阳地区大田作物的影响  

The Impact of Climate Change on the Regional Field Crops in Shenyang

作　　者：刁军[1] 董晓明[1] 姜晓燕[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳市东陵区气象局,沈阳110168 [2]沈阳市气象局,沈阳110168

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2012年第23期266-270,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目"北方农业低温冷害监测预警技术研究专题东北玉米低温冷害的监测研究"(2006BAD04B02);中国气象局气候变化专项"东北粮食生产格局的气候变化影响与适应"(CCSF-09-13)

摘　　要：为了当地农业结构调整、保障粮食生产提供依据,研究沈阳地区1951—2010年气候变化,采用气候倾向率及标准偏差方法对气候变化做定量分析。结果表明:沈阳地区年平均气温倾向率为0.196℃/10a,气候跃变之后年平均气温升高0.7℃;年降水量倾向率为-16.724mm/10a,气候跃变之后降水减少40mm,多雨年在减少,少雨年在增加;第一场透雨出现时间被推迟,个别年份播种期受到限制。气候跃变之后终霜日提前,初霜日后推,延长了无霜期,作物播种期可适当早播;降水量减少、第一场透雨出现时间后延和不稳定,对作物生长和播种影响较大,成为农作物正常生长和产量稳定提高的限制因素。To provide evidence for agricultural structure adjustment and guarantee grain production , using climate tendency rate and standard deviation quantitative analysis method of climate change, researched climate change in Shenyang on 1951 to 2010. The results showed that： In Shenyang area, annual average temperature tendency rate is 0.196℃/10a, which increased by 0.7℃ in condition of climate jump. The annual precipitation tendency rate decreased 40mm on condition of climate jump, which compared with normal value is-16.724 mm/10a. Meanwhile, rainy year was decreasing; in contrast that little rainy year was increasing. And the individual years of sowing was restricted, which effected by the first soaking rain occurrence time delayed. After climate jump, the ends of frost seasons have been gotten earlier, and its onsets were later, and the frostless season is longer. Crop sowing data early sowing. Decreasing precipitation and delaying the first soaking rain occurrence time, greater impacted on crop growth and sowing, crop normal growth and production steadily improving are limiting factors.

关 键 词：气候跃变 大田作物 倾向率 标准偏差 沈阳 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]