一次粤西沿海地区强降水成因与GRAPES预报表现  

Cause analysis of a severe precipitation over western coast of Guangdong and the forecasting performance of GRAPES model

作　　者：黄潮光 冯业荣[2] 黄青兰 管勇 李晓欣 

机构地区：[1]广东省江门市气象台,广东江门529020 [2]广州中心气象台,广东广州510080 [3]广东省鹤山市气象局,广东鹤山529700

出　　处：《海洋预报》2012年第4期52-59,共8页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：广东省2011年"防灾减灾关键技术研发"项目;"南海季风槽造成江门沿海地区强降水分析与预报"

摘　　要：利用NCEP 4次/d的1°×1°FNL再分析资料、自动站资料、多普勒天气雷达资料、GRAPES_36 km模式预报资料,从天气学的角度分析研究了2010年6月28日强降水的成因。分析结果表明,此次强降水系由于南海季风槽建立造成,实况形势分析和物理量场诊断都符合南海季风槽的特征。强降水的辐合上升运动十分之明显,水汽辐合高值区与暴雨落区一致,强降水伴随南海季风槽建立同时发生。GRAPES_36 km模式对此次季风槽形势预报、物理结构描述得相当清晰,暴雨落区对应的高能区、强烈辐合区,模式描述相当准确,模式的提前量能够保证对此次季风槽造成的强降水作出提前预报。By using the 1°× 1° FNL 4-times daily reanalysis data, automatic weather station data, Doppler weath- er radar data and GRAPES_36km mesoscale numerical prediction model data, a severe precipitation case on June 28, 2010 was analyzed. Results showed that the severe precipitation was caused by the South China Sea monsoon trough （SCSMT）. Both real-time analysis and diagnostic calculations verified that the heavy rainfall was characteristically related to SCSMT. The GRAPES_36km Model well predicted the severe rainfall process. Heavy rainfall occurred simultaneously with the outbreak of SCS monsoon trough. The numerical prediction pro- vided sufficient lead time for the rainfall forecast.

关 键 词：南海季风槽 强降水 GRAPES模式 

分 类 号：P457.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]