基于日尺度的非结冰期水面蒸发影响因素敏感性分析  

Sensitive Factors to Water Surface Evaporation on a Daily Scale during the Non-freezing Period

作　　者：魏光辉[1] 艾尔肯.艾白不拉 杨鹏年[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆塔里木河流域管理局干流管理处,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2012年第4期60-63,共4页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51009128);新疆水文学及水资源重点学科资助(XJSWSZYZDXK20101202);新疆水利水电工程重点学科资助(XJZDXK2002-10-05)

摘　　要：水面蒸发量敏感因素的判断,对于干旱区水资源的规划与利用具有重要指导意义。本文以新疆尉犁县为例,对水面蒸发量影响因素进行分析。文章首先采用偏最小二乘回归法建立了水面蒸发量模型,在此基础上运用偏导数法分析了水面蒸发量对各影响因素的敏感性。结果表明:偏最小二乘回归模型具有较高的精度,不仅能够定量预测水面蒸发量,而且能够从机理上解释各影响因素对蒸发量的影响;风速、温度、水汽压这三因素对水面蒸发量最为敏感。上述模型为研究干旱区水资源利用提供了一种新方法和新思路。The judgement on sensitive factors to water surface evaporation is very important for water resources planning and utilization in arid areas. This paper takes Yuli county as an example to analyze the factors in affecting water surface evaporation. First, the water surface evaporation model was established on the basis of partial least squares regression. Second, the each sensitive factor was analyzed by using partial derivative method. The results showed as followes： partial least squares regression model has high accuracy, not only predict the water evaporation quantitatively, but also explain them from the impact mechanism of each factor to evaporation. Wind speed, temperature and vapor pressure are the most sensitive factors. The model provides a new method and new ideas for the utilization of water resources in arid areas.

关 键 词：水面蒸发量 气象因素 偏最小二乘回归 日尺度 干旱区 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]