融合D-S理论的锅炉人因贝叶斯网络安全性定量分析  

Security quantitative analysis of ship boiler based on human factor Bayesian networks fusion with D-S theory

作　　者：初珠立[1] 杨自春[1] 梁洁[1] 彭茂林[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学船舶与动力学院,湖北武汉430033

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2012年第9期93-97,共5页Ship Science and Technology

基　　金：武器装备预研基金项目(9140A27050109JB1112);总装"十一五"预研基金项目(513270301);教育部优秀人才支持计划项目

摘　　要：针对船用锅炉人因安全性分析中存在的知识不确定性,采用D-S证据理论对多专家信息进行融合并建立考虑人因的贝叶斯网络,得到节点条件概率的区间表示形式。经加权平均后代入贝叶斯网络计算,与面向对象贝叶斯网络和FTA等方法的对比显示,该方法能够更加有效地融合不同专家信息,也更为符合工程实际。Uncertain information is a common problem in ship boiler safety analysis,the D-S evidence theory fused information of different experts well and a Bayesian Network was built considering human factors,and got conditional probability of the nodes in form of interzones. Then input the weighted average information to the BN model. Contrast with object-oriented BN, FTA shows that this method can fuse information from different experts better, the data is more accurate for project.

关 键 词：不确定性 D—S证据理论 人因因素 贝叶斯网络 安全性分析 船用锅炉 

分 类 号：TK229-7[动力工程及工程热物理—动力机械及工程]