长吉都市区能源碳足迹测度及影响因素研究  

Energy Consumption Carbon Footprint of Metropolitan District of Changchun and Jilin,China

作　　者：张约翰[1,2] 张平宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林长春130012 [2]西安科技大学管理学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《地理科学》2012年第9期1099-1105,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41071108);吉林省科技发展计划项目(20100627);国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAH31B06)资助

摘　　要：对1999-2008年长春都市区碳足迹进行计算,采用岭回归法和脱钩指数分析了经济发展与能源消费碳足迹之间的关系。结果表明：能源消费碳足迹呈现波动变化态势,1999-2002年人均能源消费碳足迹较低,2003年后呈现快速上升态势;受支柱产业能源消费特征影响,煤炭、石油所占比例呈上升趋势;生产性和生活性碳足迹均上升,能源消费碳足迹产值呈现不均衡变化态势;经济增长是能源消费碳足迹的主要影响因素,技术进步和城镇化发展作用有限;经济增长与能源消费碳足迹之间处于相对脱钩状态。The urban energy consumption carbon footprint is so important for the developing low-carbon econo- my. Based on the STIRPAT model and the ridge regression method, this article analyzes the trend of energy consumption carbon footprint of the metropolitan district of Changchun and Jilin during the period of 1999 to 2008. In it, the total energy consumption in the metropolitan district of Chang and Jilin is calculated, and the re- lationship between economic development and the energy consumption carbon footprint is analyzed. The car- bon footprint per capita indicates a tendency from decline to rise, and the decoupling index reflects the state of relative decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption carbon footprint. Both are employed in this study. The results are follows. 1） The energy consumption carbon footprint has fluctances in the metropoli- tan district of Changchun and Jilin. The carbon footprint per capita was low from 1999 to 2002, and increased from 2002 to 2008.2） Changchun and Jilin have different pillar industries, which has great disparities in the en- ergy consumption. For the energy consumption structure, there is a significant positive correlation between the energy consumption carbon footprint of coal and the oil index, and both of them are notable increase. 3） The proportion of productivity and living carbon footprint increases, and the output value of ernergy consuption car- bon footprint indicated a fluctuating situation in the metropolitan district of Changchun and Jilin. 3） There is significant positive correlation between energy consumption carbon footprint and economic development, prog- ress of knowledge, and urbanization. Of all influencing facotrs, the economic development is the dominat, but the later two work less. 4） The decoupling index of economic growth and energy consumption carbon footprint fluctuates within the stats of relative decoupling and in re-coupling. According to the situatin of of energy con- sumption carbon footprint of the metropolitan distri

关 键 词：能源消费碳足迹 STIRPAT模型 脱钩指数 长吉都市区 

分 类 号：F293.13[经济管理—国民经济]