基于补偿和不可替代因素合成的人因可靠性分析方法  

Method of human reliability analysis based on CSICF

作　　者：董学军[1,2] 陈英武[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,长沙410073 [2]酒泉卫星发射中心,酒泉732750

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2012年第9期2087-2096,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70971131;71071156)

摘　　要：在安全性要求比较高的环境中.关键操作失误可能会导致灾难的发生,因此,评估关键操作的人因可靠性不仅能为系统灾难评估提供依据,而且有助于改善关键操作人员的训练水平及工作环境.本文从因素分解及合成的角度研究人因可靠性,定义补偿和不可替代因素,创建补偿和不可替代因素状态合成(composition of statcs ofirreplaceable and compensation factors,CSICF)方法.针对航天器发射工作流程特点,分析航天器发射人因可靠性因素空间和特性,构建航天器发射人因可靠性评估模型,并通过一个模拟实例说明了基于CSICF的人因可靠性分析方法的可行性.In a surrounding expected by the high safety, the critical operation errors could lead to a disaster, therefore, to assess human reliability for critical operator not only provides support for the estimate of the disaster of systems but also is useful to improve the level of training and the condition of the critical operators. In this paper, human reliability is researched by studying the decomposition and composition of factors, compensatory and irreplaceable factors are defined, and the method of composition of states of compensatory and irreplaceable factors （CSICF） is then established. For the characteristic of the basic flow of spacecraft launch engineering, the factors of space and the features of the human reliability of a spacecraft launch are analyzed and the overall human reliability model of spacecraft launch is constructed. Finally, a case analysis demonstrates the application of the human reliability assessment model of a spacecraft launch engineering, which validates the feasibility of the human reliability analysis method of CSICF.

关 键 词：人因可靠性 工作组可靠性 补偿和不可替代因素状态合成 因素空间 航天器发射 

分 类 号：V554[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]