发达地区农民消费结构的关联分析及变动预测——基于广东省2000—2010年面板数据的分析  

Relation analysis and alteration forecasting of peasants consumption structure in developed regions in China: Based on the panel data of Guangdong province between 2000-2010

作　　者：苏柱华[1] 李源[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东省农业科学院科技情报研究所,广东广州510640 [2]华南理工大学经济与贸易学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第4期16-22,共7页Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：农业部软科学课题(Z201112);教育部人文社会科学项目(10YJA630129)

摘　　要：基于灰色系统理论,以广东为例,选取2000—2010年的面板数据,分析中国发达区域农民消费结构的发展变化,结果表明:农民消费仍处于温饱型与小康型的发展阶段,其消费支出灰色关联度的优先排序结果为:家庭设备用品及服务>衣着>交通与通讯>居住>其它商品和服务>医疗保健>食品>文化教育娱乐用品与服务。进一步利用灰色预测建模方法预测2011—2015年农民消费支出及其构成的变动趋势,结果表明:生活水平将向小康型及富裕型发展的情况下,农民消费将由物质性转型为理性型与享受型,消费支出灰色关联度的优先度排序结果为:医疗保健>交通与通讯>文化教育娱乐用品与服务>食品>家庭设备用品及服务>衣着>居住>其它商品和服务。Basing on the theory and method of grey correlation degree, using the data from 2000 to 2010 of Guangdong province, this paper analyzed the development and changes of consumption structure of rural residents in developed regions. The results showed that the per capita consumption was still on the stage of simply having adequate food and clothing and comparatively well-off, and the priority ranking of eight consumption statistics indexes was as following： household facilities〉clothing〉 transportation and communication 〉 reside 〉 other consumptions〉 medical care health care〉food〉 recreation of culture and education. The forecasting analysis on grey correlation degree model showed that the per capita consumption from 2011 to 2015 will shift from the matter-type consumption to rational consumption, and the living levels will be the type of comparatively well-off and the prerichness, and the priority ranking of the eight consumption statistics indexes will be following： medical care health care〉 transportation and communication〉 recreation of culture and education〉 food〉 household facilities〉clothing〉 reside 〉other consumptions.

关 键 词：农民消费结构 灰色关联分析 灰色预测 发达地区 广东 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]