变化条件下大连市水资源可持续利用状态评价  

Assessment of Water Resources Sustainable Utilization Status in Dalian City Based on Variation Conditions

作　　者：郎连和[1,2] 李敏[3] 何斌[3] 周惠成[3] 杨德礼[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理与经济学部管理科学与工程学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]大连市水务局,辽宁大连116001 [3]大连理工大学建设工程学部水利工程学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2012年第9期43-46,215,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划课题基金资助项目(2007BAB28B01);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50909012)

摘　　要：针对水资源可持续利用状态具有动态可变性的评价标准及指标值具有区间性的问题,根据实行最严格水资源管理制度的思想,从用水总量、效率、水质及社会经济等方面确定了影响水资源可持续利用状态的重要指标,从而建立了基本评价体系,并确定了其评价标准,进而采用基于区间值的水资源可持续利用状态可变模糊评价方法分析了大连市水资源可持续利用状态评价指标体系、评价标准、模型参数及指标值等不确定性因素,评价了大连市各水平年的水资源可持续利用状态。结果表明:现状年(2007年)下大连市水资源可持续利用状态处于中级偏低水平;非常规水源利用规模的不断增大及外调水工程的陆续运行,一定程度上保障了未来经济社会发展对水资源的需求,提高了大连市水资源可持续利用能力,规划水平年(2015、2020、2030年)下水资源可持续利用状态基本稳定于中级或中级偏高水平。Water resources sustainable utilization status is of dynamic variability and its evaluation standard and indicator values is of interval characteristic. According to the ideology of implementation of the most stringent water management system, a basic assessment system of water resources sustainable utilization status is established with important indexes, which include water consumption, efficiency, water quality and social economy. These indexes affect water resources sustainable utilization status. And then the corresponding evaluation standards are determined. The interval value based variable fuzzy assessment method of water resources sustainable utilization status is used to analyze the uncertain {actors in the process of assessment. Four aspects of variation conditions are given, such as index system, evaluation stand- ard, model parameters and indicator value. And in theses variable scenarios, water resources sustainable utilization status is as- sessed for Dalian City in each level year. The results show that water resources sustainable utilization status of current year （2007） for Dalian City is in the slightly low to intermediate level, and its statuses of future planning level years （2015, 2020, 2030） are in the intermediate or slightly high to intermediate level; however, with the utilization of non-traditional water resource and transferred water on a large scale in Dalian City, its water resources demands for economic and social development in the future are guaranteed, and the corresponding water resources sustainable utilization capacity is promoted obviously.

关 键 词：变化条件 水资源 可持续利用 评价 大连市 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]