开放的竞争市场维系能源供需均衡——《BP世界能源统计2012》解析  

An open competitive market maintains energy supply & demand balance——Analysis of BP World Energy Statistics 2012

作　　者：李嘉[1] 王立敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院 [2]<国际石油经济>编辑部

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2012年第7期36-41,110-111,共6页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2011年全球能源行业跌宕起伏,但总体数据显示出一如往年的发展轨迹。全球GDP增速为3.7%,略高于2.5%的一次能源消费增长率,GDP增速和能源消费增长与过去10年的平均水平接近。2011年,政治动荡引发石油价格飙升,原油均价创历史新高;石油消费增长疲软,仅增长0.7%;尽管利比亚和其他一些地区的供应中断,在欧佩克增产的带动下,全球石油产量仍然增加了109.6万桶/日(1.3%)。2011年全球天然气生产和消费增速均趋于缓和,美国市场一枝独秀,产量创历史新高,欧盟的天然气产量和消费量均为有史以来的最大降幅。煤炭以5.4%的增速再次成为增长最快的化石能源;核能发电量下降4.3%,可再生能源发电量则强劲增长17.7%。2011年,市场以其灵活性成功地应对了大规模供应中断,燃料替换、供需侧的反应以及贸易结构优化发挥了各自的作用,能源价格成为引导能源资源再分配的重要信号。In 2011, the global energy industry went through ups and downs, but the general data reflected a stable development track. Global GDP grew at a rate of 3.7%, which was slightly higher than the 2.5% growth rate of primary energy consumption; the GDP growth rate and energy consumption growth were close to the mean level of the past 10 years. In 2011, political turmoil resulted in rocketing oil prices and the average crude price hit a new high; oil consumption grew sluggishly at a rate of just 0.7%; Supply from Libya and other regions was discontinued, however global oil production still increased by 1,906,000 barrels/day (1.3%) thanks to the production increase in OPEC. The growth rate of global gas production and consumption tended to be moderate in 2011, while only the US market outshone others and production in the US hit a new high; both the production and consumption of gas in the European Union experienced the largest drop in their history. With a growth rate of 5.4%, coal became the fastest growing fossil energy; power generation from nuclear energy decreased by 4.3% and power generation from renewable energy sharply increased by 17.7%. In 2011, the market flexibly and successfully coped with large-scale supply discontinuation; fuel replacement, supply & demand side reaction and trade structure optimization played their respective roles; energy prices became the important signal to guide energy and resource redistribution.

关 键 词：BP 市场 动荡 一次能源 石油 天然气 煤炭 核电 可再生能源 2011年 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]