农村养老保险基金缺口预测及实证分析——基于甘肃省的调查研究  

Positive Analysis of New Rural Social Pension Scheme Fund Gap and Its Forecast——Based on the Investigation of Gansu Province

作　　者：徐镱菲[1] 张明喜[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610065 [2]科学技术部中国科学技术发展战略研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《财经论丛》2012年第4期68-74,共7页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

摘　　要：以政府财政投入为特征的新型农村社会养老保险试点以来,农民参保人数和参保率呈逐年上升趋势,制度绩效明显提高。本文构建了农村养老保险基金缺口精算模型,通过实证分析得出,随着人口老龄化程度的提高,导致养老保险资金出现较大的收支缺口,未来各年度所需的养老保险金支出政府承担的财政压力较大,农村集体经济承担的养老保险责任将会超出其相应的经济能力。为此,建议不断扩大农村养老保险覆盖范围,多渠道筹集资金,加大中央财政支持力度,合理划分各级地方政府的财政责任,大力发展农村集体经济。Since the pilot of New Rural Social Pension Scheme, which has the characteristics of government fiscal investment, numbers of farmers and rate of participating have increased year by year. It has obviously improved systematic performance. This pa per constructs a actuarial model of New Rural Social Pension Scheme fund. After the empirical analysis, it concludes that as the rise of population age , it will lead to a larger gap between income and expenses. In the future, the annual pension costs of New Rural So cial Pension Scheme will impose great financial pressure on the government and rural collective economy. It assumes that New Rural Social Pension Scheme liability will be beyond their corresponding economic ability. Therefore, we should expand coverage of New Rural Social Pension Scheme, raise finance through various channels, increase the central financial support, divide local government fiscal responsibility at all levels rationally, and develop the rural collective economy.

关 键 词：新型农村社会养老保险制度 基金缺口 精算模型 政府行为 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]