农产品价格波动“过山车”现象的经济机制分析  

The Economic Mechanism of "Roller Coaster" Phenomenon of Price Fluctuations of Farm Produce

作　　者：蔡志强[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院,天津300134

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2012年第9期51-60,共10页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(青年基金项目)(10YJC790259)

摘　　要：若将"蛛网模型"和"均衡移动模型"结合起来,探讨农产品价格决定和价格波动中的关键因素及其相互作用的机理,就会得如下结论:我国农产品的合约制生产与流通组织化模式发展滞后,自然因素的随机作用造成农户生产决策的混同均衡,大量资金频繁进出农产品生产领域和流通环节,以及消费偏好的意外变化,这种种因素的"共振作用"就使得农产品价格波动屡屡发生"过山车"现象。而农产品合约制生产与流通的组织化模式的建立,应为治理农产品价格波动"过山车"现象的有效策略。Combining Cobweb Model with Equilibrium Movement Model, the article explores the key factors and interactional mechanism of price establishment and fluctuations of farm produce, and reaches the following conclusions. China lags behind in the contractual agreement production and organizational development of distribution of farm produce. The stochastic function of natural factors results in the pooling equilibrium of farmers＇ decision-making. A lot of capital frequently flows into and out of the field of production and distribution of farm produce. The consumers＇ pref- erence varies unexpectedly. The synchronous vibration of various factors leads to the ＂roller coast- er＂ phenomenon of price fluctuations of farm produce. Therefore, the contractual agreement production and organizational development of distribution of farm produce are the effective strategies for dealing with ＂roller coaster＂ phenomenon of price fluctuations of farm produce.

关 键 词：农产品价格波动 蛛网模型 均衡移动模型 混同均衡 共振作用 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]