能源价格波动对粮食生产成本的动态影响研究  

The Dynamic Effects of Energy Price on Grain Production Cost in China

作　　者：刘宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学哲学与公共管理学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《财贸研究》2012年第4期34-39,82,共7页Finance and Trade Research

摘　　要：能源价格波动会对中国粮食生产成本造成冲击,而且不同类型能源价格波动的动态冲击效果存在差异。运用向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数研究发现,煤炭价格对粮食生产成本的影响十分显著,石油价格对粮食生产成本具有潜在影响。农户会调整生产要素投入以应对能源价格对粮食生产成本的冲击,但由此也给粮食生产带来负面影响。因此,应推广科学的粮食生产方式,减少对能源的依赖,并完善能源价格挂钩型农资的调控政策以及优化农资补贴方式。Influence of energy price has effect on grain production cost in China. However the effects of different kind of energy are not consistent. Based on the VAR model and impulse response function, this paper finds out that the effect of coal price fluctuation on grain production cost is significant while that of oil product is potential. Farmers will adjust inputs structure to meet the shock, which will have negative effect on grain production. Therefore, a scientific method of grain production should be adopted to relieve its de- pendence on energy. The control policy of energy related agricultural input should be perfected and the method of agricultural inputs subsidy should be improved.

关 键 词：能源价格 粮食生产成本 动态影响 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]