1990—2010年上海市农业科技进步贡献率的测算与分析  

Calculation and analysis of the contribution ratio of agricultural technical progress in Shanghai between 1990—2010

作　　者：张睿[1] 张莉侠[1] 王晓华[1] 闫其涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市农业科学院农业科技信息研究所,上海201403

出　　处：《上海农业学报》2012年第3期95-99,共5页Acta Agriculturae Shanghai

基　　金：上海市农业科学院发展基金项目:上海市农业科技效益评价研究[农科发2009(12)]资助

摘　　要：通过构造Cobb-Douglas生产函数模型,采用索洛余值法测算了上海1990-2010年的农业科技进步贡献率,并估算出未来5年的预测值。结果表明:上海农业科技进步贡献率呈持续增长态势,农业科技进步对农业总产值增长的贡献由"八五"时期的50.79%增长到"十一五"时期的66.05%;在可能性较大的方案中,预测未来5年上海农业科技进步贡献率将达到69%左右。最后对上海农业科技进步贡献率的变化情况进行了分析。The contribution ratios of agricultural technical progress in Shanghai between 1990- 2010 were calculated by setting up the Cobb-Douglas production model and using the Solow＇s residual, and those of the next 5 years were also estimated. The results showed that the contribution ratios pres- ented an upward trend,increasing from 50.79% in the eighth five-year period to 66.05% in the elev- enth five-year period^In a quite probable scheme it was predicted that the contribution ratio would be up to 69% in the next 5 years. Finally some causes for the contribution ratio fluctuation were analyzed as well.

关 键 词：农业科技进步 贡献率 索洛余值法 

分 类 号：S-058[农业科学]