青藏高原北部地区M≥7强震有序网络结构及其预测研究  

Ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes and its prediction in northern Tibetan Plateau region

作　　者：门可佩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学数学与统计学院,南京210044

出　　处：《南京信息工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第4期307-315,共9页Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology（Natural Science Edition）

摘　　要：青藏高原北部地区是中国西部主要地震区,自1700年以来,该区M≥7强震具有显著的有序性,其主要有序值为106～107a、77～78a、53～54a、26～27a、10～11a与3～4a等.以翁文波信息预测理论为指导,将有序性分析与复杂网络技术相结合,努力探索具有中国特色自主创新的强震中长期预测方法,构建了青藏高原北部地区M≥7强震信息有序网络结构.在总结该区21世纪以来3次大震(2001年昆仑山8.1级大震、2008年汶川8.0级大震和2010年玉树7.3级强震)预测研究的基础上,根据所建强震有序网络结构提出新的预测意见:2014—2015年、2026—2027年和2030年前后该区仍有可能发生M≥7强震.研究结果表明此方法对于强震的中长期预测具有独特的效果.The northern Tibetan Plateau region is a main seismic zone in west China. Since 1700, M ≥7 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region. The main ordered values are 106-107 a,77-78 a,53-54 a,26-27 a,10-11 a and 3-4 a. According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and combining ordered analysis with complex network technology,we try to explore the practical method for strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics,and build informational ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes in the northern Tibetan Plateau. In this paper, we study into the prediction of 3 great earth- quakes （the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1 ,the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 and the 2010 Yushu M7.3 earthquake） based on the method of ordered network structure, and give many notorious earthquake examples in China and abroad. Mean- while,the cause of formation about Wenchuan and Yushu earthquake have been discussed primarily. At last, we present a new prediction opinion that the future M≥7 strong earthquakes will probably occur in 2014--2015, 2026--2027 and 2030 in this region. The results show that strong earthquake can be predicted and this method pro duces satisfactory results in moderate and long term prediction for strong earthquakes.

关 键 词：青藏高原北部地区 信息有序网络结构 昆仑山大震 汶川大震 玉树强震 强震预测 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]