阜新地区1951-2010年降水变化特征  

Precipitation Change Characteristics in Fuxin from 1951 to 2010

作　　者：张旭 蒋娇娇 

机构地区：[1]阜新市气象局,辽宁阜新123000 [2]辽宁省气象信息中心,沈阳110016

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2012年第3期66-70,共5页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2011-007);中国气象局公益性行业专项(GYHY2010-06001)资助

摘　　要：根据阜新地区2个观测站1951-2010年逐月和逐年降水资料,通过趋势分析、Mexicohat小波变换和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析了阜新地区降水的气候变化特征。结果表明:阜新地区近60 a来年降水量呈下降趋势,下降速率为10.7 mm/10a;降水量年际变化明显,极易出现旱涝灾害。除春季降水略有增加外,其他三季均呈减少趋势。年降水量和季节降水量均有准12 a和18 a的周期振荡。除春季降水量没有明显突变点外,夏、秋、冬三季均存在突变点,其中夏季降水量存在3个突变年份,分别为1967年、1978年和1986年,秋季降水量在1996年存在突变,冬季降水量在2004年存在突变。Based on the monthly and yearly precipitation data of two observational stations from 1951 to 2010 in Fuxin, the climatic change characteristics were analyzed by the trend analysis, the Mexicohat wavelet transform and the Mann-Kendall mutation test method. The results showed that the precipitation in Fuxin in the recent 60 years showed a decreasing tendency of 10.7 mm/10a. The precipitation interan- nual change was obvious, and was prone to drought and waterlogging disasters. The precipitation of sum- mer, autumn and winter showed decline trends except for spring. The yearly precipitation and seasonal precipitation were all apparent oscillation cycle in 12 years and 18 years. There are abrupt changes for precipitation except spring. The abrupt change years for precipitation of summer are in 1967, 1978 and 1986, autumn is in 1996, winter is in 2004.

关 键 词：降水量 趋势分析 Mexicohat小波分析 MANN-KENDALL法 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]