江西双季早稻气候适宜度小波分析  

Wavelet Analysis of Climate Suitability for Double-Cropping Early Rice in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：田俊[1] 黄淑娥[1] 祝必琴[1] 崔海建[2] 

机构地区：[1]江西省气象科学研究所,江西南昌330046 [2]南昌工学院,江西南昌330108

出　　处：《江西农业大学学报》2012年第4期646-651,670,共7页Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis

基　　金：科技部公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200906021)

摘　　要：利用江西省12个水稻观测站逐日温度、光照、降水资料,运用Morlet小波函数,研究近50年来江西省双季早稻降水、温度、日照适宜度的年际变化特征和未来趋势,为早稻气候年景预测提供新方法,为水稻安全生产和粮食期货提供科学依据。结果表明:近50年来,江西省双季早稻降水适宜度较低,且近15年来表现得不稳定,年际变化幅度加大;温度、日照适宜度较高,且温度适宜度年际变化表现出阶段性的波动,而日照适宜度近35年的波动较前15年明显为小。研究还表明,降水适宜度存在准26年和准15年的周期振荡,从20世纪90年代中期开始,出现了一个准7年周期,加大了降水适宜度波动,并使降水适宜度偏小的年份增多。温度适宜度的准26年周期和日照适宜度的准34年周期在整个分析的时间段内均表现得非常稳定,信号较强。预计,2011—2014年江西省双季早稻生长季降水、温度、日照适宜度将处于偏小期。Based on the daily temperature, sunshine and precipitation data from 12 rice observation stations in Jiangxi Province, interannual variation and future trend of precipitation, temperature and sunshine suitability in the recent 50 years were analyzed by using Morlet wavelet, which provides a new method for forecasting the early rice climate years and provides a scientific basis for rice production safety and food futures. The results indicated that： over the past 50 years, the precipitation suitability for double cropping early rice in Jiangxi was low, and was instable in the recent 15 years, inter-annual variation rate increased ;the temperature and sunshine suitability were relative high. The inter-annual changes of temperature suitability showed a stage fluctuations, and the sunshine fitness fluctuation in the past 35 years compared with that in the previous 15 years was significantly smaller. The research results also showed that quasi-26a and quasi - 15a cycles existed in the precipitation suitability and from the mid- 1990s, there was a quasi-seven-year cycle which increased the fluctuation of precipitation suitability and small precipitation suitability. The temperature suitability of the quasi-26 year cycle and sunshine suitability of the 3d-year cycle throughout the analysis period appeared very stable, and the signal was strong. It is estimated that the precipitation, temperature and sunlight suitability for early rice in Jiangxi Province will be in a weak period in 2011 -2014. It is expected that the fitness of the precipitation, temperature, sunshine suitability for double-cropping early rice during its growing season in Jiangxi Province will be small in 2011 -2014.

关 键 词：双季早稻 气候适宜度 小波分析 江西省 

分 类 号：S615[农业科学—园艺学]