转型期中国人口结构变化与居民消费的区域差异研究  

Regional Differences of Chinese Population Structure Change and Residents' Consumption during the Transition Period

作　　者：刘苓玲[1] 徐雷[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南政法大学劳动经济研究中心,重庆401120

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2012年第5期5-12,共8页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目<建立覆盖城乡的社会保障制度研究>(07ASH008);西南政法大学研究生科研创新重点项目<人均收入一万美元国家或地区社会保障制度的比较研究及其对重庆的启示>(201 1XZYJS027)

摘　　要：运用1997～2010年的省际面板数据可以考察经济转型期人口结构变化对居民消费的影响及其区域差异。人口结构与居民消费二者之间密切相关:少儿抚养系数与居民消费水平呈正相关关系;老年抚养系数与居民消费水平呈负相关关系;生育率、家庭规模、居民储蓄率都与居民消费有同向变动关系。其中少儿抚养比对东部居民消费拉动作用最大,而生育率、家庭规模因素对中西部地区居民消费的影响更为显著。其政策含义是:在刺激内需、扩大居民消费时要充分考虑地区间的人口结构差异。Based on the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2010, This paper aims at investigating the effect of the change of population structure on residents＇ consumption and its regional differences during the period of economic transition. It＇s discovered that the age structure of the population has a significant impact on residents＇ consumption, the child dependency ratio and consumption are positively related, the elderly dependency ratio and residents＇ consumption show a negative correlation. And fertility, family size, household savings rate and consumption change in the same direction. The child dependency ratio plays the most important role in pulling the eastern re- gion residents＇ consumption, while, in the central and western areas fertility and family scale factors are more significant. So when the government stimulates domestic demand and enlarge residents＇ consumption, regional population structure difference should be taken full account.

关 键 词：人口结构 居民消费 区域差异 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]