WCSODS中小麦生育期模型在淮河流域旱涝胁迫环境下的改进  

Improvement of wheat growth model in wheat cultivational simulation-optimization-decision making system(WCSODS) along Huaihe River basin

作　　者：葛道阔[1] 曹宏鑫[1] 张利华 葛淑芬 刘岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,江苏南京210014 [2]江苏省徐州市气象局,江苏徐州221002

出　　处：《江苏农业学报》2012年第4期722-727,共6页Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006027)

摘　　要：针对淮河流域小麦生产现状以及旱涝评估技术要求,运用WCSODS(小麦栽培模拟优化决策系统),利用淮河流域4个冬麦区(东北丘陵冬麦区、北部平原冬麦区、中部平原冬麦区和西部及沿淮冬麦区)21个样点的1998～2007年的小麦生育期观测资料及同期气候资料和土壤资料,调试确定了本地化的小麦生育期参数,并以4个冬麦区不同年份和不同品种的大田试验资料对WCSODS的小麦生育期模型进行了验证。模拟值与观测值比较显示,小麦播种～抽穗期、出苗～抽穗期和播种～成熟期3个生育阶段天数的模拟精度较高、预测效果较好,3个发育阶段的标准根均方差(NRMSE)、绝对平均误差(MAE)和一致性系数(IoA)分别为:0.019、2.860、0.999;0.025、3.246、0.999;0.014、2.632、0.999。对WCSODS中小麦出苗期模型进行土壤湿度影响订正与改进,小麦播种至出苗天数亦取得较好的模拟效果。According to current wheat production status and the technical requirements for assessment of agricultural flood and drought damages in the Huaihe River basin, WCSODS（wheat cuhivational simulation-optimization-decision mak-ing system） was applied to assess the wheat development stages and yield. The WCSODS genetic parameters of wheat varie- ties were calibrated using the wheat development data as well as climate data, soil data in four planting areas in the Huaihe River basin（ the northeastern hilly area, the northern plain area, central plain area, and western area and area along Hua- ihe River ） from 1998 to 2007. The filed experimental data for wheat cuhivars in the Huaihe River basin were used to vali-date the development model of WCSODS. The comparison between the simulated value and observed value showed that the time duration of three developmental stages（ sowing to heading, emergence to heading, sowing to maturity） had higher sim-ulated precision and better forecasting effect, and the NRMSE（ normalized root mean square error） , MAE（ mean absolute error） and loA at three stages were 0. 019, 2. 860, 0. 999, 0. 025,3. 246, 0. 999, and 0. 014, 2. 631,0. 999, respective-ly. After the wheat model at sowing to seedling stage in WCSODS was revised by soil moisture, it achieved a better simulation results.

关 键 词：淮河流域 冬小麦 生育期模型 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学]