基于Logistics模型的邛海水污染经济损失研究  

Research on Economic Loss Due to Polluted Water in Qionghai Lake Based on Logistic Model

作　　者：陈金发[1] 朱海峰[1] 王姗镒[1] 

机构地区：[1]西昌学院农业科学学院,四川西昌615013

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2012年第9期26-29,共4页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：四川省教育厅青年项目(09ZB106);西昌学院大学生课外科研基金项目

摘　　要：通过应用Logistics模型对邛海饮用水源、旅游、渔业、农田灌溉等功能在2006-2010年间水污染造成的经济损失进行了估算,结果表明:邛海2006年水污染综合损失率最高,达到99.81%;总体经济损失为44 678.04万元。在此基础上,采用完全均匀混合水质模型预测邛海2015水质状态,并通过Logistics模型估算发现:至2015年,邛海水体污染综合损失率为99.99%,综合经济损失达44 832.42万元。通过对邛海水污染经济损失的研究,为邛海的水环境保护和水资源利用提供科学的依据。Economic loss due to water pollution in Qionghai lake in 2006-2010 year is estimated based on Logistic model from the aspects of the functions of drinking water, tourism, fishing, agricultural irritating. It shows that the economic loss rate of water pollution in Qionghai lake reach 99. 81% in 2006, the whole economic loss is 446. 780 4 million RMB, which is the highest in 2006- 2010. Based on it, the water quality of Qionghai in 2015 is predicted by completely mixed model, and its economic loss is estimated. It is found that in 2015, the economic loss rate of water pollution in Qionghai lake reach 99. 99%, the whole economic loss of Qionghai Lake is 448. 324 2 million RMB. The study result of economic loss due to Qionghai water pollution will offer science reference for Qionghai water protection and utilization.

关 键 词：邛海 Logistics模型 经济损失 预测 

分 类 号：X82[环境科学与工程—环境工程]