限定作用域的矿产资源综合信息定量预测模型——以桂西—滇东南锰矿为例  

Spatial Affecting Extents Limited Comprehensive Geo-information Mineral Resources Quantitative Prediction Models;A Case Study of Manganese Ore Predictionin Western Guangxi and Southeastern Yunnan,China

作　　者：张宝一[1] 毛先成[1] 周尚国[2] 胡超[1] 闫芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学有色金属成矿预测教育部重点实验室,地球科学与信息物理学院,长沙410083 [2]中国冶金地质总局,北京100025

出　　处：《地质论评》2012年第5期978-986,共9页Geological Review

基　　金：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(编号2011BAB04B10)的成果

摘　　要：针对矿产资源预测中的预测区与已知区信息不对称问题,提出了一种限定作用域的矿产资源量综合信息定量预测方法,并将该方法应用于桂西一滇东南地区的锰矿预测。其主要步骤是:①地质变量的作用域为数据范围、作用范围和在已知区内的值域范围三者的交集,避免了当原始数据的范围未覆盖整个预测区时对数据进行外推的操作;②预测模型的作用域为其包含的全部地质变量的作用范围的交集,当构成模型的地质变量的作用域的交集为空时,模型是无意义的;③通过地质变量组合,采用多元线性回归方法在已知区构建出一系列定量预测模型;④对于每个预测单元,从一系列定量预测模型中选取地质信息量大、线性回归效果好的模型,用于预测其单元资源量。该方法预测过程是预测区的成矿作用要素与在已知区建立的预测模型之间进行匹配的过程,充分保证了预测区与已知区的信息的对等性。This paper analyzed the information asymmetry problem between prediction areas and known areas faced by the mineral resource quantitative prediction and brought a comprehensive geo-information quantitative prediction method limited by spatial affecting extent to deal with it, which applied in manganese ore prediction in western Guangxi and southeastern Yunnan, China. Its major steps included ： （ 1 ） the spatial affecting extent of geo- variant was defined with intersection of data extent, affecting extent and extent occupied by range of values of known areas, avoiding extrapolationof raw data when not occupy whole prediction areas; （2） the spatial affecting extent of prediction model was defined with intersection of geo-variants that that make up the model, and model was meaningless when the intersectionis null; （3） through combination of geo-variants, a series of quantitative prediction models was built using multivariate linear regression; （4） to each prediction unit, prediction model was selected to calculateits reserve, which including most geo-information and best regression effect. The procedure of prediction matched metallogenesis of prediction areas with prediction models built in known areas, which efficiently ensured the information symmetry.

关 键 词：作用域 综合信息 定量预测模型 锰矿 

分 类 号：P618.32[天文地球—矿床学]