长三角城市的贸易集聚效应与上海的贸易辐射效应研究  

Research on Trade Agglomeration Effects of the Yangtz River Delta and the Trade Radiation Effects in Shanghai

作　　者：姚海华[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海关学院经济与工商管理系,上海201204

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2012年第11期1-6,共6页East China Economic Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(11YJC790240);上海优秀青年教师专项基金项目(shg11003);"上海贸易中心建设"社会科学创新研究基地和上海发展战略研究所石良平工作室联合资助项目

摘　　要：腹地依托是贸易中心城市崛起的一项重要条件,理清上海与长三角周边城市之间的贸易空间格局是上海国际贸易中心建设推进过程中的关键性命题。文章运用全局Moran指数和局部Moran指数对长三角16个城市的进出口空间相关性进行了测算。计算结果表明:长三角地区贸易整体发展具有空间集聚效应,以加工贸易为主导的贸易模式导致进口集聚效应大于出口集聚效应;长三角区域内部贸易空间集聚效应呈现多样化,上海和苏州呈现高-高集聚,但低-低集聚依旧是长三角地区当前最主要的贸易集聚类型;上海是目前长三角地区唯一一个对区域整体进出口具有空间辐射效应的城市,且辐射效应随着时间的推移正在不断增强;上海与宁波在带动长三角地区整体进出口发展层面不完全是纯粹的竞争关系;与此相反,随着南通港的全面启动,苏州却可能会对上海造成严峻挑战。Hinterland support is one of the key conditions of the development for a trade central city,so it is important to make clear of the spatial trade structure between Shanghai and other cities in Yangtze River Delta in the course of Shanghai international trade centre construction.The paper adopts Global Moran’s I and Moran’s I,and analyzes the spatial correlation of the urban export and import of the sixteen cities in Yangtze River Delta by calculating both of the two indices.The result indicates that there exists a trade agglomeration effects in the whole areas of Yangtze River Delta,the import agglomeration effect is more obvious than the export one as the processing trade pattern which is dominant.The agglomeration style of each city diversifies since the disparity of trade volume,and Shanghai and Suzhou display high-high agglomeration while most of their neighboring cities present the low-low one.Shanghai radiates uniquely to the ambient cities in Yangtze River Delta both in export and import,and the radiation effect strengthens as time passes by.Shanghai and Ningbo compete incompletely in the aspect of driving the whole growth of trade in Yangtze River Delta,in contrary,Suzhou may probably challenge a lot to Shanghai with the expansion of Nantong harbor.

关 键 词：长三角 贸易 集聚效应 辐射效应 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]