我国区域经济周期阶段同步性的测算与分析  

The Measurement and Analysis of China's Regional Economic Cycle Synchrony

作　　者：彭化[1,2] 陈乐一[1] 李玉双[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079 [2]湖南商学院经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2012年第11期43-46,共4页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(11BJY120;12BJL026);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-11-0120)

摘　　要：随着市场经济和区域经济的发展,一个国家区域间的经济联系日益加强,区域经济周期问题的分析已成为经济周期研究的重要方向之一。文章首先利用＂谷-谷＂法对各省经济周期阶段进行划分,然后依据Harding and Pa gan（2006）的周期阶段同步性指数,定量测算我国省际间经济周期阶段的同步性,并在此基础上进一步探讨我国东中西部三大地区内部以及以长三角、珠三角、环渤海经济圈为代表的区域合作组织的经济周期阶段同步性问题。研究结果显示：改革开放以来,我国省际间经济周期阶段的同步性在60%~70%时间内是一致的;经济周期阶段的同步性具有＂俱乐部＂特征;长三角、珠三角经济圈省际间经济周期阶段存在明显同步性,而环渤海经济圈省际间经济周期阶段同步性尚不明显。Along with the development of the market economy and the regional economy,the economic ties are increasingly enhanced within the regions of the country,the analysis of the problems concerning about China’s regional economic cycle has become one of the important directions of research on economic cycle.Firstly,uses the ＂Valley-Valley＂ method to divide the phrase of the economic cycle,and then quantitatively estimates the economic cycle phase synchrony in different provinces on the basis of Harding and Pagan（2006）’s phase of the cycle synchrony index.Further more,it discusses economic cycle phase synchronization problems in our country’s three big regions-east,middle,west regions,and in the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,Bohai Sea surrounding area on this basis.The result shows that since the opening up reform,China’s inter-provincial economic cycle phase synchrony is consistent within 60%～70% part of time.The economic cycle phase synchrony is characterized with club feature.There are significant synchronous characteristic in the inter-provincial economic cycle phase of Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta,however,the synchronous characteristic of Bohai Sea surround ing area is not obvious.

关 键 词：区域 “谷-谷”法 同步性指数 同步性 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]