控制图法对某部三种主要传染病预测预警的效果评价  

Effect evaluation of three infectious diseases early warning in a military unit by control chart method

作　　者：杨春梅[1] 王辉[1] 卢娟[1] 宫占威[1] 袁键[1] 高丽莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州军区疾病预防控制中心疾病监控科,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2012年第9期809-811,共3页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：兰州军区后勤科研计划项目(CLZ11J05)

摘　　要：目的采用控制图法建立三种主要传染病的预警模型,以提高传染病疫情监测的预警能力。方法利用2006-2010年某部病毒性肝炎、肺结核、水痘报告发病数据建立预警数据库,应用控制图法建立预警模型,参照"流行标准",通过计算比较灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、约登指数及绘制受试者工作特征曲线,优选出最佳预警界值。结果综合平衡各预警界值的灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值后,将P90作为病毒性肝炎、水痘的预警界值,灵敏度均为100.0%,特异度分别为80.0%、75.0%;将P80作为肺结核的预警界值,灵敏度为100.0%,特异度为90.0%。结论控制图法可作为某部病毒性肝炎、水痘、肺结核的预警方法,有较好的预警功效,预警界值分别为P90、P90、P80。Objective To set up early warning models for three infectious diseases by using control chart method and to improve infectious disease monitoring and warning ability. Methods The warning database was based on the report of viral hepatitis, lung tuberculosis and varieella from 2006 to 2010, and early warning model was established by using control chart. The epidemic was definited by consulting specialist. After comparing and calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and drawing receiver operating characteristic curve （ ROC）, the optimal model and thresholds were ascer- tained. Results The Pg0 was proper warning threshold for virus hepatitis and varicella. The sensitivity were both 100.0%, the specificity were 80.0% and 75.0% respectively. The Ps0 was proper warning threshold for lung tuberculosis, the sensitivity and specificity were 100.0% and 90.0% respectively. Conclusions Control chart method can be used for early warning models of viral hepatitis, lung tuberculosis and varicella, the warning threshold were P90, P90 and P80 respectively.

关 键 词：传染病 预测 军事人员 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学] R51[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]