高关水库灌区灌溉用水状态预测  

State Forecast of Irrigation Water Use in Gaoguan Reservoir Irrigation District

作　　者：陈向东 丁俊芝[2] 易柏生[2] 黄云章[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省高关水库管理局,湖北荆门431806 [2]湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北荆门448156

出　　处：《长江工程职业技术学院学报》2012年第3期1-4,共4页Journal of Changjiang Institute of Technology

摘　　要：依据高关水库1972～2010年灌溉用水量资料,应用均值标准差法建立4级分级标准。针对用水量为相依随机变量的特点,以各阶自相关系数为权重,运用马尔可夫链模型预测未来一年的灌溉用水量状态,结果表明,该方法直观、预测准确、计算简便,为灌区灌溉用水量的中长期预测提供了新的分析途径。Based on irrigation water use data of Gaoguan Reservoir from 1972 to 2010, the 4-grad- ing standards are established by applying mean standard deviation method. According to the char- acteristics of dependent random variables of water use and taking autocorrelation coefficients as weights, Markov Chain model is used to predict the state of irrigation water use in the coming year. The result shows that the method is visual, proiections are accurate and calculation is sim- ple, providing a new analytical approach for long-term forcasting of irrigation water use.

关 键 词：自相关系数 马尔可夫链 灌溉用水量 预测 高关河水库灌区 

分 类 号：S274.4[农业科学—农业水土工程]