在校大学生数量预测研究  

University Student's Amount Predicts Research

作　　者：彭怀祖[1] 王建宏[2] 

机构地区：[1]南通大学教育科学学院,江苏南通226007 [2]南通大学理学院,江苏南通226007

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2012年第18期147-153,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：全国教育科学规划教育部重点项目(DFA090361);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(10YJCZH150)

摘　　要：高等教育规模的预测是重要的基础性工作,在校大学生数量是规模的首要因素,而决定大学生数量的要点是适龄人口和毛入学率.基于人口推算模型对未来10年的18-22岁适龄人口数进行计算,利用灰色系统模型对高等教育毛入学率进行预测,在此基础上,将毛入学率的定义式与适龄人口数推算法相结合,推导出用于计算在校大学生数量的毛入学率与适龄人口的乘积模型,计算结果表明,模型对我国2010-2020年的在校大学生数量规模具有良好的预测效果.The estimate of higher education scale is count for much foundation work.University student＇s amount is the initial factor of scale. Deciding the important point of university student＇s amount is school-age population and gross enrollment ratio of higher education. Based on the calculation model of population, we calculate the school-age population in the range from 18 to 22 in the next 10 years. By using grey system, the gross enrollment rate of advanced education can be forecasted. Then, a product model of gross enrollment rate and school-age population is deduced to predict the university student＇s amount by combining the definition formula of gross enrollment ratio with the calculate way of school-age popula-tion. The numerical results of university student＇s amount from 2010 to 2020 demonstrate that the product model is efficient.

关 键 词：高等教育规模 在校大学生数量 适龄人口 毛入学率 

分 类 号：G649.2[文化科学—高等教育学]