用数据组合法分析钻控关井对油田产量的影响  

Using GMDH Method for Analyzing Effect of Shut-In Well on Production Rate in Super-High Water Cut Stage

作　　者：王禄春[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大庆油田有限责任公司勘探开发研究院,黑龙江大庆163712

出　　处：《新疆石油地质》2012年第5期578-580,共3页Xinjiang Petroleum Geology

摘　　要：油田进入特高含水期,随着井网密度的增加,钻控关井对产量的影响程度不断增大,影响因素也变得非常复杂。为了更加准确地预测钻控关井对产量的影响,在综合动态分析的基础上,初选了钻控关井影响产量的因素,利用复相关分析进行了变量筛选,并利用数据组合处理自组织建模方法构建了钻控影响产量预测模型。结果表明,井网密度、流动系数、采液强度和含水率是钻控对产量的主要影响因素,经实际数据误差检验,模型预测精度高,可以满足油田现场要求,应用的方法及建立的模型对年度规划编制中预测钻控关井对产量的影响提供了理论依据。With the oilfield entering into super-high water cut stage and the increasing of well pattern density, the effect of shut-in well on production rate is increasing obviously, and the influencing factors become very complex. In order to predict the shut-in well on production rate accurately, this paper developed the prediction model for it by choosing the influencing factors based on synthetic dynamic analysis, using muhiple correlation analysis to screen the variables and applying the group method of data handling （GMDH）. The result shows that well pattern density, flow coefficient, fluid productivity intensity and water cut are the major influencing factors. The verification from actual data indicates that the model is of high predictive precision and can satisfy the field requirements. Also, it provides theoretical basis for predicting the effect of shut-in well on production rate in annual planning arrangement.

关 键 词：钻控 影响因素 数据组合处理方法 建模 预测 

分 类 号：TE329[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]