基于灰色残差模型的中国税收收入预测  

The Forecast of the China Tax Revenue Based on the Residual Model of GM(1,1)

作　　者：曹飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学人文学院,西安710071

出　　处：《经济研究导刊》2012年第27期18-19,53,共3页Economic Research Guide

摘　　要：税收是国家财政收入的重要来源,准确的税收预测结果对于制定各项经济政策具有非常重要的意义。为提高中国税收收入的预测精度,适应资源配置、收入再分配和宏观经济调控的需求,在传统灰色预测技术的基础上,建立了残差灰色预测模型,并通过实例分析验证了该模型的实用性和精确性。Tax revenue is an important source of government fiscal revenue, accurate forecast of tax revenue has very important meaning for economic policy making.In order to improve forecast accuracy of China tax revenue, so that meet the needs of resources allocation, redistri- bution of national income,macroeconomic control.Based on the traditional grey forecast technology,the paper established residual GM （ 1,1 ）model, by example analysis, validated practicability and accuracy of the residual GM（ l, 1 ）model.

关 键 词：灰色预测 残差GM(1 1)模型 中国 税收收入预测 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]