体制转轨、经济增长与周期波动:理论及实证  

Institutional Transition,Economic Growth and Business Cycle:Theory and Empirical Analysis

作　　者：陈杰[1] 安源[1] 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学商学院,江苏扬州225127

出　　处：《经济经纬》2012年第5期132-136,共5页Economic Survey

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC0010);扬州大学人文社科基金项目(11YZS038)

摘　　要：笔者建立一个理论模型,深入探讨体制转轨、经济增长与周期波动之间相互作用的机制,并通过实证分析加以验证。研究结果表明:(1)在体制转轨过程中,长期经济增长主要由民间投资拉动,而政府投资不会对长期经济增长产生显著影响;(2)国有制企业的投资冲动越小,国有制企业与私有制企业经济活动波动程度的差异就越小,对经济周期波动的冲击也就越小;(3)国有制经济成分占国民经济的比重越小,对经济周期波动的冲击就越小。The paper builds a mathematical model and probes the mechanism of institutional transition, economic growth and business cycle in depth with verification by empirical analysis. The findings indicate： firstly,In the course of the institutional transition, long term economic growth is pulled mainly by private investment rather than government investment; secondly,if the investment impulse of state-owned enterprises becomes smaller, the difference between the volatility of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in economic activity is smaller, the impact on the business cycle is also smaller; thirdly,if the state-owned economic sectors account for the smaller proportion of the national economy, the impact of business cycle is smaller.

关 键 词：体制转轨 经济增长 经济周期波动 

分 类 号：F037.1[经济管理—政治经济学]