我国输入性通胀影响因素的实证研究——基于2005-2011年月度数据的分析  

Empirical Study on Factors Influencing China's Imported Inflation——Based on theAnalysis of the Monthly Data from the Year 2005 to 2011

作　　者：顾晓敏[1] 谢启超[1] 封思贤[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学商学院,江苏南京210024

出　　处：《安徽商贸职业技术学院学报》2012年第3期33-38,共6页Journal of Anhui Business College

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71103209);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-10-0824);国家社会科学基金(10CJY064);教育部人文社科基金(09YJC790152)

摘　　要：通过分析在当前经济环境下输入性通胀的传导路径,并建立向量自回归VAR模型,通过实证分析系统考察CPI、FDI、进出口差额、国际原油及粮食价格5个变量,结果表明我国目前存在输入性通货膨胀,FDI对我国通胀影响最大,进出口差额、国际大宗商品价格也存在不可忽视的作用,并根据分析结果提出缓解通货膨胀输入性因素影响的政策建议。By analyzing the transmission channel of imported inflation under the current economic environment as well as establishing VAR（veetor auto-regressive） model, this paper examines systematically five variables including CPI, FDI, import and export balance and prices of international crude oil as well as grain through empirical study, concluding that at present China is wimessing an imported inflation and FDI has the biggest influence on China＇s inflation, while the import and export balance and prices of international staple commodities also have certain influences, for which the paper advances some policy suggestions to resolve the influences of these factors so as to ease the inflation.

关 键 词：输入性通货膨胀 传导路径 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F820.5[经济管理—财政学]