资本积累视角下中国刘易斯拐点的实证研究  

Empirical Research on the Lewis Turning Point of China: From the Perspective of Capital Accumulation

作　　者：余宇新[1,2] 张平[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院,上海200083 [2]复旦大学经济学院985基地,上海200433

出　　处：《商业经济与管理》2012年第9期41-46,共6页Journal of Business Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"调整和优化公共投资与政府消费结构的研究"(11CJL024);复旦大学"985工程"三期整体推进社会科学研究项目"中国式增长的过去与未来:资源再配置的道路"(2011SHKXZD003);中国博士后科学基金项目"基于新经济地理学视角的劳动力转移;产业集聚与城镇化发展关系研究"(2011M500524);中国博士后科学基金项目"经济开放与中国服务业发展研究"(20110490654)

摘　　要：本文以新古典模型作为研究基准,从资本积累的视角对中国刘易斯拐点问题进行了实证研究,避免了当前研究思路与刘易斯模型不一致的问题,也避免了以部门分类特征搜集数据的困难,突破了以劳动力市场作为研究重心的研究思路。实证研究结果表明,我国的资本积累速度与人均资本量并不存在新古典体系所预言的负向关系,而是显著的正向关系,表明我国资本收益率还未进入到明显的下降趋势中,意味着刘易斯模型含义下的刘易斯拐点并未真正到来。With the neoclassical model as the research benchmark, this paper has conducted an empirical study on Lewis Turning Point in China from the perspective of capital accumulation. This has avoided problems of some researches being inconsistent with Lewis model at present. It has also avoided the difficulty of data collection based on sector classification characteristics, which breaks through research methods centered on the labor market. The empirical results show that the rate of capital accumulation in China is significant positive relationship with per labor amount of capital, which is not consistent with the prediction of neo-elassieal system. It indicates that the return of capital has not yet entered a significant downward trend in China and means that the Turning Point meant in the Lewis model has not yet come.

关 键 词：刘易斯拐点 资本积累 新古典模型 

分 类 号：F012[经济管理—政治经济学]