北京市终端能源消费及碳排放变化影响因素  

Factor Analysis of the Terminal Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in Beijing

作　　者：马晓微[1] 崔晓凌[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第5期1-5,共5页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项基金资助项目(XDA05150600);北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9092016)

摘　　要：近些年,北京市能源消费需求不断增加,能源对外依存度较高,资源瓶颈问题日益突出。基于LMDI方法定量分析了1996—2009年北京市第一、第二、第三产业终端能源消费的变化特征,研究影响北京市二氧化碳排放变化的主要因素及各因素的贡献程度。研究结果表明:调整产业结构起到的影响作用正逐渐减弱,而降低能源强度能够有效抑制终端能源消费和二氧化碳排放量的增加。虽然优化能源消费结构的作用在目前并不显著,但未来仍有很大发展空间。因此,北京市在快速发展经济的同时,应该重视转变经济增长方式,优化产业结构调整,降低能源强度及碳排放系数,提高能源利用效率,以减缓能源消费及二氧化碳排放的增长速度。In recent years, the demand of Beijing＇ s energy consumption is increasing and the energy external dependence is growing higher and higher. By using the LMDI method, this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of the terminal energy consumption of Beijing＇s primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry from 1996 to 2009. It studied the main factors that affected carbon dioxide emissions and the contribution degree of each factor. The results of the study show that the effect of industrial structure＇s adjustment is gradually abated, while the lower energy intensity can reduce the terminal energy consumption and carbon emissions effectively. Although it is not useful by optimizing the energy consumption structure at present, it would have a better effect in the future. Thus, with the rapid development of economy in Beijing,more attention should be paid to change the model of economic growth. Based on the above empirical analysis, some proposals are put forward.

关 键 词：北京终端能源消费 碳排放 LMDI 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]