低碳约束下中国全要素生产率的时空演变——基于Sequential Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数分解方法  

Space-time Evolution of Total Factor Productivity under Low-Carbon Constraint in China : Based on Sequential Malmquist-Luenberger Productivity Index Method

作　　者：程云鹤[1,2] 齐晓安[1] 汪克亮[2] 杨力[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学人口与资源环境研究所,长春130024 [2]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《技术经济》2012年第9期51-58,共8页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"基于小样本数据的煤矿安全评价方法与应用研究"(71071003);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目"基于V-fold和神经网络结合的煤矿安全评价方法研究"(09YJC630004);安徽省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目"安徽省工业企业二氧化碳排放;影响因素及低碳经济政策研究"(SK2012B146);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目"安徽城市低碳转型发展机理与政策支持研究"(AHSK11-12D107)

摘　　要：在全要素框架下运用基于连续前沿的Malmquist-Luenberger生产率增长指数方法,估算了1987—2009年中国28个省(自治区、直辖市)的低碳全要素生产率、技术进步和效率改善,对中国低碳全要素生产率的总体发展、区域差异进行实证分析。然后,利用核密度估计,对累积相对低碳全要素生产率增长、累积相对技术进步和累积相对效率改善做分布动态演进分析。结果表明:考察期内中国整体的低碳全要素生产率趋于上升,但上升幅度逐渐减小;东、中、西三大区域的低碳全要素生产率存在显著差异,呈东高西低的增长格局;东、中部地区的低碳全要素生产率提升是技术进步和效率改善共同推进的结果;西部地区的低碳全要素生产率提升仅靠技术进步驱动,效率改善存在退步迹象;省际间的低碳全要素生产率呈一定程度的"俱乐部收敛"特征,技术进步有明显的"追赶效应"。This paper calculates the growth of total factor productivity under low-carbon constraint, technical progress and efficiency change of carbon dioxide emissions of 28 provinces in the period of 1987-2009 by the sequential Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index method, and ana- lyzes the dynamic change of total factor productivity under low-carbon constraint in whole China and the regional difference among eastern,cen- tral and western regions. Then it investigates the dynamics of whole distribution of cumulative relative total factor productivity growth under low-carbon constraint, cumulative relative technical progress and cumulative relative efficiency change by the Kernel density estimation. The em- pirical results show as follows：total factor productivity growth under low-carbon constraint has been improved in whole China while the growth is decreasing year by year; there are significant differences in total factor productivity growth under low-carbon constraint among three regions, and the pattern is characterized by the high growth of eastern region and the low growth of western region,the improvement of total factor pro- ductivity growth under low-carbon constraint in eastern and central regions is the result of technical progress and efficiency change working to- gether ; that in western region only relies on technical progress,and efficiency change exists degradation sign; total factor productivity growth un- der low-carbon constraint takes on a certain degree of ＂convergence club＂ features, and technical progress has obvious ＂catching-up＂ effect in China.

关 键 词：碳排放 碳减排 低碳发展 低碳经济 连续Malmquist—Luenberger指数 全要素生产率 核密度 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F124F205