汛限水位动态控制风险评估研究综述  

Research Status and Perspective of the Risk Assessment of Dynamic Control of the Water Limit Level

作　　者：孙建光[1] 何晓燕[2] 黄金池[2] 任明磊[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100124 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《人民黄河》2012年第9期10-13,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(200701015);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAB29B09-3)

摘　　要：对国内外汛限水位动态控制风险分析研究的进展情况进行了回顾与总结:在水库洪水调度中实施适度的汛限水位动态控制,可以尽最大可能地将洪水变害为利;在开展汛限水位动态控制实践工作的同时,应对汛限水位动态控制的风险分析加以足够重视。建议在以下方面开展深入研究:①汛限水位动态控制的风险分析理论;②汛限水位动态控制的风险分析方法;③水库群联合调度下的汛限水位动态控制的风险分析;④汛限水位动态控制的风险管理;⑤编制可操作的、决策者能参与的、界面友好的水库汛限水位动态控制风险评估的系统软件。The research progress of risk assessment for dynamic control of reservoir normal elevation in flood season was summarized in this paper, and some problems in present research were put forward. The results show that ： carrying out dynamic control of reservoir normal elevation in flood season properly in reservoir flood control can change flood hazard to flood benefit; and its risk assessment must be paid more attention in the practical work of dynamic control of reservoir normal elevation in flood season. Further research in risk assessment for dynamic control of reservoir normal elevation in flood season should be done as follows ： （1）the risk analysis theory of dynamic control of reservoir normal elevation in flood season ; （2）the risk analysis methodology of dynamic control of reservoir normal elevation in flood season ; （3）tbe risk analysis of dynamic control of reservoir normal elevation in flood season for integrated operation of reservoir group ;（4）the risk management of dynamic control of reservoir normal elevation in flood season ; （5）oper- able and user＇ s friendly risk assessment software for risk assessment of dynamic control of reservoir normal elevation in flood season.

关 键 词：风险分析 动态控制 汛限水位 水库调度 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]