基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型研究  

Research on machine safety-capability evaluation model based on bayesian network

作　　者：陈文瑛[1] 吴穹[2] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学安全与环境工程学院,北京100070 [2]沈阳航空工业学院民航与安全工程学院,沈阳110136

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2012年第8期189-192,共4页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：首都经济贸易大学中青年教师提升项目(编号:00891154430106);首都经济贸易大学校级青年项目(编号:2010XJ013)

摘　　要：重点阐述了基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型的建立过程,应用贝叶斯网络建立了开式压力机安全性评估模型,对冲手事故模型中的共因失效节点进行了说明,并最终计算得出开式压力机冲手事故的发生概率。计算结果分析表明:对于系统基本事件之间有共因和相关关系的系统,BN计算结果使得事故后果概率明显增大,设计者和管理者不能忽略共因和相关关系对系统风险的影响。Machine safety-capability evaluation model based on Bayesian Network were emphasized. A Bayesian Network model of open press blunt hand accident risk assessment was set up, in addition, the nodes of common cause failure were illustrated and the accident probability of occurrence of leaf node events were obtained. The dis- cussions about computed results indicated that regarding to system with unit events of common cause failure or inter- dependent events, result of accident probability computed from a BN model is higher than that computed from the FT/ET model.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 共因失效 冲手事故 评估模型 

分 类 号：X941[环境科学与工程—安全科学]