巨无霸指数视角下的货币汇率均衡水平分析  

A study on the equilibrium exchange rates from the perspective of Big Mac index

作　　者：刁云涛[1] 卜凡玫[1] 岳绍冬 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行济南分行

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2012年第9期36-41,共6页China Money

摘　　要：基于购买力平价理论的巨无霸指数因其简单易懂，为判断汇率水平均衡性提供了一个简便的工具和辅助的视角。文章按经济体类别对《经济学人》公布的巨无霸指数走势特征进行了考察，并依据其修订指数的思路进行了新指数计算方法的推导及数据试算。通过对新老BMI数据的系统考察，发现经济金融条件类似的国家，其巨无霸指数存在一致性，新兴经济体货币低估存在一定的普遍性；汇率均衡程度与金融市场发展水平、资本项目开放程度、外汇管制等因素之间未存在必然联系；调整后的巨无霸指数显示，人民币汇率可能已经处于比较稳定的均衡水平。The Big Mac index is based on the purchasing power parity theory and easily comprehensible, which provides a convenient supplementary tool to determine the equilibrium of exchange rates. This article examines the Big Mac index trend published in the Economist by the category of economic entities, and makes deduction of the new index calculation method and data computation with reference to the revised index. The studies on the old and new BMI data showed that, in countries with similar economic and financial conditions, their Big Mac index is consistent, and the currency undervaluation is a generality in emerging economic entities. No causal relationship is founded between the exchange rate equilibrium level and the financial market development level, the capital account opening-up degree or foreign exchange control. The adjusted Big Mac index reveals that RMB exchange rate may have reached a rather stable equilibrium level.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 均衡水平 巨无霸指数 

分 类 号：F831.2[经济管理—金融学]