中国经济社会发展的新时代即将来临  

The New Era of China's Economic and Social Development Will Come Soon

作　　者：阙方平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国银行业监督管理委员会湖北监管局,湖北武汉430071

出　　处：《湖北经济学院学报》2012年第5期5-13,28,共10页Journal of Hubei University of Economics

摘　　要：当前,中国依靠投资立国、劳动力强国、资金兴国的发展模式已经走到了尽头。中国经济社会持续发展的路径依赖因素正在悄然改变,一个新的时代即将来临,其标志性的事件正在或即将发生,具体表现在七个方面:(1)中国经济发展由数量型向质量型转变,增速正常回落;(2)国际收支由大幅失衡向基本平衡转变,贸易顺差大幅收窄;(3)货币政策由紧缩向中性转变,货币深化(M2/GDP)进程将逆转(货币供应量增幅下降);(4)房地产市场由非理性向有限理性转变,房价稳中略降;(5)股票市场由无序向有序转变,牛市即将来临;(6)政策资源配置由发散向收敛转变,更加关注民生;(7)债务危机由失控向基本可控转变,中国经济社会发展的路径依赖即将改变。At present, the traditional economic growth model which China relied on investment , labor resource and capital has come to the end. The path dependence factors of China＇s economic and social sustained development are changing, which indicates a new era is coming. The new era characters as follows：（1）Chinese economic development switches from the amount model to quality model ,and economic growth drops normally.（2）International balance of payments switches from huge imbal- ances to basic balance , and trade surplus reduce sharply.（3）Monetary policy switches from tight to neutral , and monetary deepening （ M2/GDP ） process will be reversed （money supply growth declines）.（4）The real estate market switches from irra- tional to limited rational , and price falls slightly. （5 ）The stock market switches from disorder to order, and ＂bull market＂ will be coming. （6）Policy resources disposition switches from divergence to convergence , and government more concerns about people＇s livelihood.（7）The debt crisis changes from out of control to basically controllable transformation. All in all, China＇s economic and social development path dependence will change soon.

关 键 词：中国 经济 社会 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济] K02[历史地理—历史学]