缩减人口还是稳定人口?——中国向何处去的命运之择  

Development Strategy Choices for Chinese Population: Stable Population or Overpopulation Control?

作　　者：原华荣[1] 朱中仕[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学人口与发展研究所,浙江杭州310028

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2012年第5期188-200,共13页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(10BRK003)

摘　　要：对"控制人口数量"基本国策的实现程度有基本完成和远未完成两种判定。主张稳定人口的基本完成论以人口过快增长得到有效遏制作依据,并为"人口—环境均衡论"、"零增长—可持续人口论"、"常量人口—压力消失论"和"人口冬天论"所支持。远未完成论则坚持将缩减人口作为中国新的人口发展战略:持续性的症结是规模而非均衡,一个能为土地生产力支持的人口并不一定能保证与环境均衡的持续,存在着间断;人口规模问题不存在技术、经济和制度解,老龄化并非衰亡,人口压力远未消失;体现人少优势、具有"釜底抽薪"作用的小规模人口将从根本上改变"人口多、底子薄"的基本国情,保障粮食安全,增加选择机会和维护发展的可持续性;而维持一个15亿的稳定人口,必将使我们陷入"规模泥潭"而断送中华民族的未来。The choice between population reduction or stable population is a critical issue to China. There are two interpretations of the basic national policy - ＂population control.＂ Basically completed theory advocating stable population is based on the idea that ＂excessive population growth＂ has been effectively curbed and is supported by the population-environment equilibrium theory,＂zero growthsustainable population theory, the pressure of constant population-disappeared theory＂ and the ＂demogmphicwinter theory. ＂ Basically completed theory is not only untenable but actually harmful -- ＂the constant populationpressure disappearS＇ contributes to misleading results of statistical analysis; ＂zero growth-sustainable population theory＂ puts the Chinese nation in a very precarious position; ＂aging is not the decline of the demographic winter＂ on the fear syndrome is confusing and misleading; reasonable age structure willgenerate a ＂fallacy of composition,＂ and will bring disaster to the country and biosphere. ＂Far from being completed＂ emphasizes ＂population reduction＂ as the main population development strategy for China. First, land capacity is inversely associated with ecological-environmental stability a population supported by land productivity does not guarantee continuous equilibrium with the environment. Second, the main issue is scale rather than ＂equilibrium.＂ The lengths of stable and continuous （exponentially decreasing or increasing） Systems with different sizes of population （1. 5 billion or 200 million） are not the same. Third, the size of the population problem has neither economic, system solution, there was no time to save the nature and dissipation point, matter, energy savings technology solutions-technology ＂ceiling effect,＂ will enable the technology to solve the ＂stuck＂ scale quagmire evolved into the ＂trap＂ and ＂black hole. ＂ Fourth, a small population and expansive land is what makes the USA such a dominant world power. Russia＇s

关 键 词：人口发展战略 缩减人口 稳定人口 规模与均衡 间断平衡 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]