Relationship between Rice Planthopper Occurrence Area in China and Atmospheric Circulation Indices  

中国稻飞虱发生面积与大气环流特征指数的关系(英文)

作　　者：季璐[1] 朱敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国计量学院生命科学学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《Agricultural Science & Technology》2012年第9期2006-2011,共6页农业科学与技术（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest(200903051)~~

摘　　要：[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric cir- culation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year, and to provide guide for preventing and controlling planthopper damage. [Method] The data related to rice planthopper occurrence and atmospheric circulation were collected and analyzed with the method of stepwise regression to establish the prediction models. [Result] The factors significantly related to the area attacked by rice plan-thopper were selected. Two types of prediction models were established. One was for Sogatella furcifera （Horvath）, based on Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in October in that year, Pacific polar vortex area index in October in that year, North America subtropical high index in August in that year, Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in June in that year, northern boundary of North America subtropical high in February in that year, Atlantic-Europe polar vortex intensity index in October in that year and Asia polar vortex intensity index in November in the last year; the other type of prediction models were for Nilaparvata lugens （Stal）, based on the Eastern Pacific subtropical high intensity index in July in that year, northern hemi- sphere polar vortex area index in October in the last year, Asia polar vortex strength index in November in the last year, north boundary of North America-At- lantic subtropical high in September in that year, north boundary of North Africa-At- lantic-North America subtropical high in January in that year, sunspot in September of the last year and eastern Pacific subtropical high area index in September in that year. [Conclusion] With the stepwise regression, the forecasting equations of the rice planthopper occurrence established based on the atmospheric circulation indices could be used for actual forecast.[目的]建立稻飞虱发生面积的预测模型,从大气环流的角度对每年的发生面积进行预测,指导稻飞虱的防治工作。[方法]分析历年的大气环流特征量的资料,选取与中国稻飞虱发生面积显著相关的大气环流因子,采用逐步回归法,建立预测模型。[结果]筛选出了与稻飞虱发生面积呈显著相关的因子,并分别建立了基于当年10月大西洋欧洲环流型W、当年10月太平洋区极涡面积指数、当年8月北美副高强度指数、当年6月大西洋欧洲环流型W、当年2月北美大西洋副高北界、当年10月大西洋欧洲区极涡强度指数和上年11月亚洲区极涡强度指数的白背飞虱发生面积预测模型和基于当年7月东太平洋副高强度指数、上年10月北半球极涡面积指数、上年11月亚洲区极涡强度指数、当年9月北美大西洋副高北界、当年1月北非大西洋北美副高北界、上年9月太阳黑子和当年9月东太平洋副高面积指数的褐飞虱发生面积预测模型。[结论]通过逐步回归法建立的基于大气环流因子的模型拟合效果较好,可用于实际预测。

关 键 词：Rice planthopper Atmospheric circulation Prediction models 

分 类 号：S435.112.3[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] S162[农业科学—植物保护]